FAO Cereal Supply

FAO’s latest forecast for global cereal production in 2022 has been lowered for a second consecutive month, down 5.9 million tonnes from September and now 1.7 percent below the 2021 outturn.

A lower global coarse grain production forecast makes up the bulk of this month’s overall cutback, as adverse weather continued to curb yield prospects in major producing countries. Standing at 1 468 million tonnes, the 2022 world coarse grain production forecast is 14.3 million tonnes lower month-on-month and down 2.8 percent year-on-year. Most of the monthly decrease is linked to reduced maize production prospects in the United States of America, as deficient rainfall resulted in further cuts to maize yield estimates and a small downward revision to the area planted. Forecasts for maize production in the European Union and the Republic of Moldova were also lowered, albeit by smaller amounts, as the drier-than-usual conditions that have characterized the season resulted in additional reductions to yield expectations. In Brazil, maize production was cut moderately based on recently released official data, however, the national output remains at a record high. Partly offsetting these downward adjustments, the forecast for global barley production was raised by 2.5 million tonnes, mostly to reflect better prospects in the Russian Federation, and now stands at 147.9 million tonnes, 1.7 percent higher on a yearly basis. In Ukraine, the production forecast for coarse grains remains unchanged from last month at 33.1 million tonnes, 38 percent lower year-on-year. Following a 1.7 million tonne reduction since September, world rice production in 2022 is now seen in the order of 512.8 million tonnes (milled basis), down 2.4 percent from the 2021 all-time high, but still an above-average crop. The revision primarily stems from more subdued output prospects in China, where prolonged summer dryness and high temperatures affected crops along the Yangtze River basin, and in Pakistan, on account of the recent severe flooding. Combined with smaller downward revisions for other countries, these cuts outweighed raised forecasts for production in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Thailand and a few West African producers. By contrast to the coarse grain and rice outlooks, the global wheat production forecast for 2022 was raised since September by 10.2 million tonnes and is now expected to reach a new record high of 787.2 million tonnes, up 1.0 percent from last year. Better-than-expected harvest results in the European Union, predominantly related to improved yields of the soft wheat crop, and in the Russian Federation, owing to conducive weather, represent the largest proportion of this month’s increase. Good soil moisture at planting time and a favourable rainfall outlook have also bolstered Australia’s production outlook, pointing to a potential second largest wheat output on record in 2022, following the all-time high in 2021. These revisions more than offset a minor cut to Argentina’s wheat forecast, where limited rainfall amounts slightly degraded crop conditions, portending to potentially lower yields. In Ukraine, the wheat production estimate remains the same this month at 20 million tonnes, also 38 percent down from the preceding year.

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